The Amiga Classic Collection/The Amiga Classic Collection - Disc 2.iso/Misc/M84-ProGambleV1.DMS/M84-ProGambleV1.adf/PRO-GAMBLE/progamble.doc

Text File | 1994-08-22 | 21KB | 503 lines

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*                            P R O - G A M B L E                              *
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* Version: 1.0 Unregistered Evaluation Copy        Released: 23rd August 1994 *
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*                       (C) Copyright Ali Prior 1994                          *
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*  THIS version of Pro-Gamble may be freely copied and distributed, provided  *
*  that this documentation accompanies the program, and that only a nominal   *
*  fee for copying, administration, postage etc is charged for the disk.      *
*                                                                             *
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    Welcome to Pro-Gamble and thankyou for purchasing this demo version.

Whilst you are no doubt eager to get started and win some money, please DO read
this document carefully before doing anything. It tells you a lot about the
aims of Pro-Gamble and how to get the most out of it. Also, you will find
details of how you can upgrade to Pro-Gamble 2 (which will be released as a
commercial program later this year) for next to nothing!

IMPORTANT: In order for Pro-Gamble to work properly, this disk should be write
           enabled (the little sliding tab on the back of the disk closed).


*******************
WHAT IS PRO-GAMBLE?
*******************

Basically, Pro-Gamble is a horse racing prediction system that works!
Having looked at other gambling programs on the Amiga, I couldn`t find one that
was both easy to use and accurate in it`s predictions.

With these two criteria in mind, I set about writing Pro-Gamble, mainly for my
own use. As the program developed though, it`s power became more obvious, and I
decided to release it as a shareware program.

As is always the case though, a program is never complete. There is much, much
more I want to do with Pro-Gamble, in fact I have started writing a completely
new version of the program from scratch incorporating all the existing, and
many new features in a more professional, streamlined form. This will be
released as a commercial package later in the year - but you can have it sooner
for no more than the cost of a regular shareware program.

Ok, enough of the future (for the moment), on with the show ....


*************
DOES IT WORK?
*************

Yes! Pro-Gamble isn`t designed to predict winners though.
It`s aim is to predict which horse is most likely to be placed in a race.

Obviously, this is useless unless the odds are good, which is why Pro-Gamble
(PG from now on) will always try to find the most likely horse WITH the best
odds. This system is more successful than it sounds, as you will find out.

Substantial amounts can be won with placed horses, using bets such as the
Placepot or any of the numerous accumulator bets available. PG has been
designed to produce results in a form matching the various betting slips,
making the whole thing even easier.

OK, so back to the original question, does it work?
In my tests of 140 randomly selected races, 83.5% of the horses suggested
by PG were placed! You could probably achieve a figure approaching this, by
betting on the favourite every time, but the odds would be terrible ... with
Pro-Gamble, the 83.5% were at much better prices.
Don`t forget that in amongst those placed horses, a good percentage actually
came first as well, again at better odds than average.

Where the real power of Pro-Gamble lies, is in it`s ability to predict Placepot
races. The week before this version was released, I tested PG with 3 days worth
of racing at the Ebor, York. Each day PG was asked to predict the outcome of
the 6 placepot races.

Day 1 (August 16th) we may have won, in that of the six predictions, 5 were
correct. The remaining race was a handicap with 23 runners, and so a fourth
place would have counted as a place. Unfortunately, the newspaper didn`t give
details of which came fourth!

Day 2 (August 17th), we won! The computer picked 3 firsts and 3 thirds!

Day 3 (August 18th), not so good unfortunately! Just 3 out of 6.

As you can see, overall the results are quite impressive.


***************
WHAT DO I NEED?
***************

You will need your Amiga and a newspaper.

The majority of other programs that I`ve seen require specialist racing papers
such as the Sporting Life or Racing Post. Apart from the hassle of getting
these papers, transferring the amount of information contained within them to
the computer is a long tedious task.
Other programs require regular updates to be made to the program, as they need
to know about all the results of every days racing. This is either even more
time consuming or expensive.

Ease of use is PG`s priority, so all the information it needs can be taken from
your normal morning newspaper. Any paper will do, so long as it contains both
a list of expected starting prices and a rating for each horse.
The input screens have been designed to use the DAILY STAR so you will probably
find it easiest to buy that each day since at least the information will be
presented in the right order.

The whole process is very quick indeed. From switching on the computer to
having a complete set of predictions for all 6 races in a PlacePot with 5
permutations will only take around 15/20 minutes!

Amiga-wise, PG was written on a CDTV with AMOS 1.36. It SHOULD be compatible
with all Amigas (1mb+), but if you do have any problems, let me know and I`ll
try my best to sort it out for you.


*********************************
LIMITATIONS OF THIS DEMO VERSION.
*********************************

To help persuade you to register PG, this version has a couple of limitations.

The main one is that it will only work for FLAT races.
National Hunt races can be predicted with the same level of success using the
full version of the program.

Secondly, the full program has a returns calculator that will work out for you
how much you will (or have) win (or won). Doing this by hand for an accumulator
is an absolute nightmare, so you need this feature to protect your sanity!


******************************
HOW DO I GET THE FULL VERSION?
******************************

The full version of Pro-Gamble is available now.
The above restrictions have been removed and the prediction system has been
improved slightly as well. Other niggly, little problems will have been sorted
as well.

==========================================================================
The full version will cost you 10 pounds   (including all post & packing).
==========================================================================

For that, you will recieve:

1. The same day that I recieve your registration fee, I will send you the full
   version of PG (1.1).

2. A couple of months later, as soon as it`s complete, you will recieve
   Pro-Gamble 2 (see below for a list of planned features)

3. You will then be entitled to a free upgrade of PG2 when it`s released.
   This upgrade will fix any bugs that are found and contain new features
   suggested by the users.

4. At some point you will also get a demo version of my next project which will
   most likely be a football pools predictor along the same lines as PG and
   a voucher for a discount on it`s registration.

As you can see, this is extremely good value especially as PG2 will cost around
25 pounds when released commercially (for an identical program to the one
you`ll recieve!). We both benefit, you get a full price program cheaply, and I
get the benefit of your opinions on PG before it`s release.

The features of Pro-Gamble 2 include:

  o  Completely new user interface providing greater speed and easier use.

  o  ~Intellibet~ prediction system which learns as it goes along, constantly
      altering it`s system to improve results. The more predictions it makes,
      the more accurate it becomes!

  o  Compatibility with ALL bets available at bookies. Predictions can be
     displayed in a variety of formats including Placepot, Lucky 15 31 63
     (both of which are also in this version), plus Sweet 16, Yankee,
     Canadian, Heinz, Goliath, Super Heinz, Tricast, Union Jack, Forecasts etc.
     All these bets can also be worked out on the improved returns calculator.

  o  Compatibility with ALL national newspapers. Information will be requested
     in the order used by your paper.

  o  Printer support, for outputting predictions either onto paper, or even
     your betting slips!

  o  Improved prediction system that uses trainer & jockey records, going
     preferences etc which in addition to Intellibet will improve reliability
     greatly (hopefully to 90%+).

  o  Every feasable suggestion put forward by you will be implemented if
     possible in the first release, if not then in the upgrade.

  o  Full on-line hypertext help facility.

  o  Easy hard-drive installation.

All that, plus a full version of PG1 to keep you going for just a tenner!

Send your name, address and cheque/postal order made out to Mr A Prior

to:       Ali Prior
          10 Lovell Park Heights
          Little London
          Leeds LS7 1DP

The full version of PG1 will be sent out WITHIN 24 HOURS of my recieving your
registration fee.

Also, if possible, include any suggestions as to how else PG can be improved.
They WILL be included in Pro-Gamble 2. Please help me to help you!

PLEASE NOTE : If by the time you read this, PG2 has already been released
commercially, you can still upgrade for the special price so long as you
mention that you`re responding to this text file.


***************
GETTING STARTED
***************

Now we`ve got all that out of the way, lets start looking at how to use PG.

Upon loading, you will have seen a menu containing the following options:

 PREDICT      - The main program itself.

 CALC RETURNS - As previously mentioned, this calculates how much you can win
                on a particular bet. It doesn`t work in this demo.

 SUCCESS RATE - PG keeps track of it`s own success rates, so that you can see
                at a glance how well you`re doing. Just select this to view
                the success rate table. Each time you load PG, you will be
                asked how well the program did last time, so be sure to keep a
                note of the number of places correctly predicted.

 HELP         - You`ve already found that one!


So really, the only option needing an explanation is PREDICT.


***********
TYPE OF BET
***********

Select Predict from the menu.
You will be asked what type of prediction you want to make.
In Pro-Gamble 1 there are two types of bet available. They are :

      PlacePot, where you have to pick a placed horse in each of 6
      pre-determined races (shown in the newspaper). You can have
      several selections for each race if you want, thus creating various
      permutations (more on this later). Press A if you want this type.

      Lucky 15 31 63, where, by placing an each way bet, you must pick a
      placed horse in each of 4,5 or 6 races. This option can actually be
      selected for any similar straight accumulator. For this, press B.


************************************************
NUMBER OF BETS (Relevant to Lucky 15 31 63 only)
************************************************

If you have selected Lucky 15 31 63, you will now be asked how many races you
want to bet on. Simply enter a number between 1 and 6.

Next the program will want to know which races are of interest to you.
Ideally, you should pick the races with the greatest number of runners, as
these always offer the best odds. Certainly, you want to avoid races with less
than 8 runners if possible, and even more so, races with less than 5.
Races in Class D seem to produce less accurate predictions than other classes,
so it`s a good idea to avoid them if possible (don`t worry if you can`t though,
as the 83.5% success does include Class D, so you still stand a good chance.)

When you have decided which ones you want to bet on, start to type in the name
of the first course. When the computer knows which one you mean, it`ll beep and
fill in the rest of the name for you. Next enter the number of races at that
course that you want to bet on. Repeat this process until you have told
Pro-Gamble about each race.

If you get stuck at all, look at the box half way down the right hand side of
the screen. Throughout the program, this tells you what you should be doing at
that time.

Of course, you can if you want, just predict the outcome of one race using the
Lucky 15 31 63 option, but remember, the program is designed to pick placed
horses, not necessarily winners.

*****************************************
RACE DETAILS (Both bet types from now on)
*****************************************

Next (or first, if you`ve selected PlacePot), you`ll be asked some more
detailed questions about each race in turn. Most of this info can be found in
the heading of the race in the newspaper. An example is shown to aid users with
no racing knowledge.


              8.00 - PRIX DE LA GRANDE DAME HANDICAP
                     Class C      1m 2f   (8 runners)   $7050

(the above example taken from the Daily Star)

The name of the course (or just Placepot if its a placepot race) will be shown
at the top of the screen. You will be asked for the following ...

 Time Of Race : Enter the time in the format shown in the help box (the one
                half way down the right hand side of the screen)
                eg: 800

 Class        : The class is shown in the newspaper as part of the heading for
                the race. If no class is shown, it is likely to be a National
                Hunt race for which you will need the full version of PG.
                eg: C

 Distance     : Again shown in the heading, it should be entered in the format
                shown in the help box.
                eg: 1m2f


 Runners      : Straightforward enough.
                eg: 8

 Value        : Sometimes, there are two prize figures shown. If so, you need
                to enter the one in brackets.
                eg: 7050

 Top Rating   : Not part of the heading, but shown at the very end of the line
                giving details of each horse is a rating given to that horse by
                the newspaper. At this point you need to enter the highest
                rating in that race. (the Star highlights this one with a star)

Repeat this process until all of the races have been covered. This may seem
long-winded, but once you get the hang of it, each one should only take a few
seconds. Pro-Gamble needs these details to decide which of it`s formulae it
should use to predict a winner.

When complete, you will be shown a summary of the races.


***********
HORSE NAMES
***********

In order to select a horse with the best possible odds, PG needs to know the
horses names in order of betting.
In the Star, this is shown after the list of horses, under the heading of `Star
Betting~.

Simply type in the name of the first horse in the list, press RETURN.
Next, enter it`s racecard number (the number at the far left of the MAIN horse
listing).

Repeat until all 5 top favourites have been entered.
Originally, Pro-Gamble wanted to know about EVERY horse. This however was
un-useable, as it took far too long to enter the data. In any case, the
majority of races are won by a horse in the `top 5`.


************
FORM DETAILS
************

Now the meaty bit. For each horse we need several pieces of information.
An example of how these appear in the newspaper is shown below.
Please refer to this example if unsure of whats what.

  1  (2)  20-1130 AMIGA ROOLZ (30)(BF,CD2,C3,D) A Prior 3 10 0 A Jockey  99*

At the top of the screen is the name of the first horse.
You need to enter ...

Form Line            - Enter the entire form line, ignoring any dashes, slashes
                       or other punctuation, but including letters.
                       eg: 201130

Days Since Last Race - Shown in brackets after the horses name (in the paper,
                       the figure in brackets on-screen is it`s racecard no!)
                       eg: 30

After the days since last race in the newspaper, are several letters in
brackets. The ones of interest to us are ...

BF - Beaten Favourite  - If present type Y, if not then N or just RETURN.
                         eg: Y

CD - Course & Distance - If present type in the number of times, for example if
                         CD2 then type 2, CD3 type 3, CD type 1 etc.
                         If not present type 0 or press RETURN.
                         eg: 2

C  - Course            - As for Course & Distance.
                         eg: 3

D  - Distance          - As for Course & Distance.
                         eg: 1

Other letters should just be ignored.

Newspaper Rating  - This is the last figure in the line, on the far right.
                    If none shown, just press RETURN.
                    eg: 99

Again, this process is repeated until all 5 of the horses have been entered.
Although it sounds complicated, when you get started, it should only take about
2 minutes to enter all 5 horses.


This whole process is repeated for each race until all have done.


***************
THE PREDICTION!
***************


Pro-Gamble now has enough information to predict the outcome of the races.
Depending on which type of bet you opted for, you will see one of two screens:


LUCKY 15 31 63:  You will be given the list of horses recommended by the
                 computer. Good Luck!

PLACEPOT:  This is the more powerful of the two bets. You will see a table,
           similar to the one on a placepot betting slip. Each vertical column
           is a different permutation of recommended races. It is up to you (or
           rather your pocket) how many of these you choose to follow.

           Pro-Gamble has 3 different formulae that it uses, depending on the
           type of race.

           Column 1 is the most likely to be successful, as it contains the
           prediction calculated by the formula for that type of race.

           Columns 2,3 and 4 contain the 3 selections of the 3 formulas
           irrespective of race type. These can still be very accurate.

           Column 5 is a random combination of the other 4. You never know!

           The results using the placepot method can be quite surprising. Even
           if you don`t win, at least one of the 5 perms will have come close.
           It`s only a matter of time - when it does pay off, the winnings can
           be substantial.


************
A FINAL WORD
************

That`s it really. As I said earlier, the whole process takes about 15/20
minutes once you get used to it - definately worth while.

I hope you enjoy using the program - if you have any difficulties please do not
hesitate to contact me enclosing a SAE. I will be only too glad to help.

If you have any suggestions for Pro-Gamble 2 please let me know, the same goes
for bug reports, as there are bound to be some that I haven`t encountered!

If you don`t want to register PG for some reason, write and let me know why!
If it`s a missing feature or an improvement that could be made, I need to know!


Thanks for reading. Good Luck!


***********
LEGAL STUFF
***********

DISCLAIMER.  The programs is provided 'AS IS'
without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied
including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of
merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. The
entire risk as to the results and performance of the program
is assumed by you. Should the program prove defective, you
(and not the author or distributor) assume the entire cost of
all necessary servicing, repair or correction. Further,
the author does not warrant, guarantee or make any
representations regarding the use of or the results of the use
of,the program in terms of suitability, accuracy, reliability,
currentness or otherwise; and you may rely on the program and
results solely at your own risk.


*******
CREDITS
*******

Pro-Gamble was written by Ali Prior.
Help page text viewer is based on AMOS ASCII Text Viewer by P.Hickman.

Software used to create Pro-Gamble -
AMOS 1.36, AMOS Compiler 1.36, Personal Paint, DPaint III, Dir Work 1.62,
Softwood File, TXEd.